A Comparative Interpretation of Mitigation Gap and Modelled Potential

Colombia is emerging as a key potential host country for Article 6 cooperation under the Paris Agreement.1 This policy brief compares two independent analytical exercises that estimate the scale of Colombia’s mitigation challenge and its potential for participation in Article 6 mechanisms.

The Climate Action Centre of Excellence (CACE) applies a top-down implementation-gap approach,2 measuring the difference between Colombia’s most recently reported greenhouse gas emissions (280.1 MtCO₂e in 2021)3 and the 2030 NDC target of 169.4 MtCO₂e/year.4 This yields an economy-wide mitigation gap of approximately 110.7 MtCO₂e/year, representing the total effort required to meet the NDC.

The Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), through its SPAR6C modelling framework,5 applies a bottom-up approach that estimates the aggregate mitigation potential of a curated portfolio of 15 measures across five sectors, arriving at 101.1 MtCO₂e/year in potential emission reductions under Article 6.

Although the headline numbers are similar, they answer different questions. The CACE figure captures the scale of the mitigation challenge; the GGGI figure represents modelled mitigation potential under specific scenario assumptions.