CACE Publications

Fluidity in Article 6 carbon markets: opportunities, barriers, and solutions

Fluidity in Article 6 carbon markets

The operationalisation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement – solidified through key decisions at COP29 in Baku – marks a pivotal shift in global carbon markets, enabling countries to engage in market-based approaches that generate and trade high-integrity carbon credits. Article 6 establishes a framework for Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs), enhancing the transparency, credibility, and scalability of climate finance. This paper, jointly developed by BeZero Carbon and the Climate Action Center of Excellence (CACE), explores the evolving landscape of Article 6 carbon markets. We highlight their transformative potential, current state, emerging opportunities, persistent barriers, and practical solutions for unlocking supply-side participation.

Article 6 markets are projected to reach USD 100 billion annually by 2030. Articles 6.2 and 6.4 can catalyse both public and private climate investments, offering pathways to achieve Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and support international mechanisms, such as CORSIA.
Despite their promise, Article 6 markets face significant challenges, including regulatory uncertainty, fragmented infrastructure, financial barriers, and uneven market readiness across jurisdictions. This report identifies concrete solutions to help countries overcome these barriers and operationalise Article 6 effectively, from leveraging existing carbon market tools and structures to fostering bilateral cooperation. Barriers and solutions for scaling the markets are divided into four key categories, each requiring targeted action from governments, market actors, and development partners:

  • Regulatory

    Barriers include lack of national frameworks, unclear authorisation processes, and NDCs lacking details on the role of Article 6. Solutions include establishing robust legal structures, developing robust NDCs and carbon budgets, and adopting tools such as carbon ratings.

  • Market

    Barriers include limited technical capacity, inconsistent quality standards, and limited political acceptance on the supply and demand side. Solutions involve strengthening institutional capacity, ensuring transparency through third-party verification, and designing fair benefit- sharing mechanisms to build stakeholder trust.

  • Financial

    Barriers include weak demand signals, pricing uncertainty, and limited investment confidence. Solutions focus on linking Article 6 to national carbon pricing systems, encouraging buyers’ coalitions, and using carbon ratings as a pricing mechanism.

  • Infrastructure

    Barriers include fragmented registry systems and a lack of standards alignment. Solutions include adopting interoperable registries, leveraging international systems, and harmonising methodologies.

The report concludes with actionable recommendations for governments, investors, and market participants to navigate and shape the future of Article 6 carbon markets. Article 6 offers a strategic pathway to mobilise carbon finance, enhance international cooperation, and drive sustainable development at scale. Realising this potential, however, depends on the ability of countries to create enabling environments that support market confidence and environmental integrity. A well-designed National Article 6 Framework is essential to anchor domestic policy, legal structures, and institutional arrangements to international standards. By aligning infrastructure, regulatory processes, and market incentives, such frameworks can unlock high-quality supply, ensure robust participation, and position countries to fully leverage the benefits of global carbon markets.